Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:06:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2763…78a8 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%9W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$115
7 days+$115
14 days+$115
30 days+$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$95
crypto 36% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +35.2% +22.3% 80% 80% +18.0%
≤30d 5 +35.2% +22.3% 80% 80% +18.0%
≤90d 31 -12.9% -21.2% 29% 29% -2.5%
all 31 -12.9% -21.2% 29% 29% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 29% -2.5%
10% -28.8% 26% -11.8%
15% -35.6% 13% -20.3%
20% -41.9% 6% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$4 · ×3.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses9 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage76d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $185 +$47 +26%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $38 +$13 +34%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $66 +$29 +43%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $37 +$30 +80%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 16 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 16 $9 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 16 $18 −$2 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 16 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 16 $7 −$1 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $8 −$1 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 16 $7 −$2 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 16 $8 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 16 $4 −$4 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 14 $8 −$6 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 14 $29 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 14 $11 +$3 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 14 $13 −$2 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 14 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Apr 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Apr 11 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 10 $75 −$33 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 10 $43 +$15 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 10 $32 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 10 $17 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 10 $26 −$8 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 10 $8 +$9 +110%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 10 $10 −$5 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 10 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 09 $3 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 94¢ $100 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 95¢ $51 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $42 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 38¢ $42 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $47 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 28¢ $47 8h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $38 16h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 41¢ $89 16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $95 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 93¢ $95 18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $66 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 97¢ $66 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 53¢ $37 22h
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $8 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $8 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $9 69d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 69d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 69d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 69d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 69d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 69d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 69d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 69d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 0¢ $0 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $4 69d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 69d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.19 · official $50.14 (match) · 94 history records