Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:14:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x276b…add4 sports 415 markets active 4d ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$588 (-3%) realized −$588 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%193W / 218L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$216est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$19
14 days−$7
30 days−$1,598
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$952
crypto 10% +$527
other 3% −$215
world 1% −$145
politics 0% −$28
culture 0% −$20
weather 0% +$3
economics 0% −$5
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -21.7% -29.1% 18% 18% -36.9%
≤30d 70 -27.1% -34.0% 33% 33% -38.1%
≤90d 186 -2.7% -12.0% 45% 44% -13.1%
all 411 -4.0% -13.1% 47% 44% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 44% -13.7%
10% -21.4% 43% -22.0%
15% -29.0% 40% -29.5%
20% -36.0% 36% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$40 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$588
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses193 / 218
Est. fees paid−$216
Open positions0
Markets (closed)411 / 415
History coverage123d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 411 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 12 $5 +$8 +152%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $5 +$26 +510%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 211.5 Jun 11 $32 +$18 +57%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 09 $18 +$14 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 08 $11 −$11 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 06 $10 +$18 +180%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 110.5 Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 05 $16 −$16 -99%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 +$13 +244%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 5? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 04 $10 +$10 +97%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 04 $10 +$14 +140%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 Jun 03 $9 −$9 -98%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 31 $5 −$5 -95%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $20 +$26 +129%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 8.5 May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 17.5 May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5 May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics May 31 $61 −$61 -100%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5 May 31 $111 −$111 -100%
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 16.5 May 31 $122 −$122 -100%
Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5 May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 May 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 31 $16 −$16 -100%
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5 May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 31 $31 +$4 +13%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 165.5 May 30 $20 +$20 +101%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 29 $20 +$13 +65%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $102 −$28 -27%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 28 $514 −$514 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 27 $102 +$117 +115%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 26 $130 +$77 +60%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 May 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 May 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND W BUY 30¢ $4 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 47¢ $10 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 35¢ $10 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Cô BUY $5 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 26¢ $5 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 34¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 6d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 10¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 6d
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $5 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 211.5 BUY Over 63¢ $32 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 55¢ $18 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5 BUY Under 54¢ $11 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 110.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Knicks 35¢ $10 12d
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 BUY Yes 51¢ $16 12d
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 BUY Yes 52¢ $10 12d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 5? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 12d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 5? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 14d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 5? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 14d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 4? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 BUY Over 38¢ $9 14d
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 BUY Yes 50¢ $10 14d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 BUY Yes 50¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 916 history records