Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:36:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x276d…ea8f crypto 1158 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$253 (-0%) realized −$222 · open −$31
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate74%856W / 297L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$235est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$348
7 days−$195
14 days−$113
30 days+$282
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$406
sports 39% −$588
weather 8% +$276
other 1% +$48
tech 1% +$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -9.7% -18.3% 58% 58% -14.1%
≤30d 168 -4.0% -13.1% 62% 60% -7.5%
≤90d 867 -2.7% -12.0% 71% 58% -10.9%
all 1153 -1.5% -10.8% 74% 56% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 56% -10.2%
10% -19.4% 36% -18.8%
15% -27.2% 19% -26.6%
20% -34.3% 10% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$47 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$222
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses856 / 297
Est. fees paid−$235
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1153 / 1158
History coverage112d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Nigma Galaxy 93¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 28 $27 +$4 +13%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $163 −$70 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $101 −$100 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $101 +$29 +29%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $73 −$73 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $101 −$75 -74%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $32 +$15 +46%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $101 +$32 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $33 −$33 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $132 −$132 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $23 +$40 +175%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $51 −$3 -5%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 1.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/ Jun 27 $50 +$21 +42%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $51 +$47 +93%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $101 −$101 -100%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $98 +$40 +41%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $51 +$30 +60%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $48 −$48 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 26 $201 +$65 +32%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $101 +$60 +59%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $121 +$48 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $35 −$33 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $16 −$16 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 26 $100 +$19 +18%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) Jun 26 $71 −$71 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $100 +$16 +16%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $252 +$74 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $85 +$15 +18%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND South Afri Jun 25 $50 +$23 +46%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $51 +$31 +62%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $50 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$28 -92%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) Jun 24 $102 +$28 +27%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $101 +$74 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$14 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 23? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 24? Jun 24 $21 +$5 +26%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $79 +$21 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $30 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 23? Jun 23 $120 +$16 +14%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $79 −$79 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $51 +$55 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 −$9 -85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 93¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $27 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $27 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 78¢ $21 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 26¢ $22 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 51¢ $44 3h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 37¢ $44 3h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 80¢ $98 3h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 83¢ $101 6h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $130 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $30 11h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $101 11h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 81¢ $27 14h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 16¢ $26 14h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 85¢ $46 14h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 14h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $32 15h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 16h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY 75¢ $101 19h
Algeria vs. Austria: Algeria O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Croatia (-1.5) AND Wi BUY 51¢ $100 22h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $132 29h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $30 30h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 30h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $98 37h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under $0 37h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $51 38h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 1.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/ BUY 70¢ $50 39h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 73¢ $101 39h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27? BUY Yes 35¢ $23 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 27? BUY Yes 50¢ $33 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 3099 history records