Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:39:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
27 0x276d…0468 other 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$8
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$32
politics 22% −$8
sports 6% +$17
economics 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
culture 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 20 -5.1% -14.2% 5% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 104 -0.9% -10.3% 12% 8% -9.6%
all 108 -0.9% -10.3% 12% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 7% -9.6%
10% -18.9% 7% -18.2%
15% -26.7% 5% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$504) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)108 / 110
History coverage97d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $171 $171 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $100 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $277 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $299 $0 -0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $66 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $321 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $43 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $90 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 01 $101 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $638 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $358 $0 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 18 $290 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 17 $286 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 16 $287 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $822 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $290 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $297 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $821 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $286 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $295 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $278 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 04 $301 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $277 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $1,327 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $600 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $309 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $913 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $297 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $277 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $601 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 3h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 26h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 28h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 3d
Will Solana reach $100 in June? BUY No 99¢ $64 3d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $66 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $66 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $6 5d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $171 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $63 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $63 11d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 12d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $60 13d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $60 13d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $59 14d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $59 14d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $51 17d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 17d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 18d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 18d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $46 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.38 · official $235.38 (match) · 344 history records