Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:54:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x276e…e914 crypto 1559 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d only
✗ bot/MM pace (130 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,731 (-9%) realized −$1,728 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate69%1135W / 505L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day129.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,206
7 days−$4,059
14 days−$4,009
30 days−$2,719
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$1,606
sports 1% −$31
weather 1% $0
other 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (130 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 678 -41.6% -47.1% 43% 36% -55.3%
≤30d 1640 -11.0% -19.4% 69% 64% -19.3%
≤90d 1640 -11.0% -19.4% 69% 64% -19.3%
all 1640 -11.0% -19.4% 69% 64% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover129.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 64% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 40% -27.1%
15% -34.2% 17% -34.1%
20% -40.6% 3% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$1,728
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses1135 / 505
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1640 / 1559
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day129.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1640 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $19 $20 +$2 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-20%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 60¢ 53¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-12%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 62¢ 72¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-15%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 48¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 493 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-24? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 10? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
RS Berkane vs. RCA Zemamra: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 62¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $15 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $8 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $15 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $8 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.06 · official $91.30 (match) · 3500 history records