Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:35:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
27 0x276e…2822 other 70 markets active 4h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$247 (+17%) realized +$243 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate65%40W / 22L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$7
14 days+$242
30 days+$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% +$14
other 23% +$3
weather 22% +$90
world 11% +$144
crypto 6% −$2
tech 4% −$3
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +45.8% +31.9% 69% 38% -7.7%
≤30d 62 +15.0% +4.0% 65% 39% +6.4%
≤90d 62 +15.0% +4.0% 65% 39% +6.4%
all 62 +15.0% +4.0% 65% 39% +6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.0% 39% +6.4%
10% -5.9% 29% -3.8%
15% -15.0% 24% -13.1%
20% -23.4% 16% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×3.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.87 per $1 lost it wins $6.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$243
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses40 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)62 / 70
History coverage13d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 64¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-12%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 72¢ 94¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+32%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 77¢ 92¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+18%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) AND Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) AND Spread: Pan Jun 28 $1 +$3 +304%
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $7 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 27 $158 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -85%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 27 $5 $0 +9%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $1 +$5 +442%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams Jun 26 $1 +$1 +146%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Bosnia-Herzegovina (-3.5) Jun 25 $1 +$1 +62%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1 $0 +4%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? Jun 22 $20 −$2 -11%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Jun 22 $20 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $105 $0 +0%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +34%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $200 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $20 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 +$2 +172%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$2 +201%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $120 +$135 +113%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 19 $16 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $88 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +40%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$1 +11%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$6 +199%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +211%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 3h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 3h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 AND Jo BUY 36¢ $1 19h
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $7 19h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Spain 100¢ $158 32h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 2 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes $0 32h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 89¢ $6 33h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL No 77¢ $6 33h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $1 34h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 34h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams BUY 40¢ $1 45h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 45h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Sweden (-1.5) AND Sprea BUY 53¢ $2 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Bosnia-Herzegovina (-3.5) BUY 61¢ $1 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 41¢ $1 4d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 4d
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 5d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? SELL No 75¢ $18 5d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? SELL No 63¢ $19 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 100¢ $200 7d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 100¢ $100 7d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 100¢ $100 7d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $24 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? SELL Yes 98¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.77 · official $80.77 (match) · 157 history records