Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:42:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
27 0x2770…290b other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,039 (-14%) realized −$1,030 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%17W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$1,080now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$961
7 days−$1,325
14 days−$1,153
30 days−$1,153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$159
sports 44% −$1,191
crypto 3% −$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -17.2% -25.1% 29% 27% -30.3%
≤30d 52 -9.0% -17.7% 33% 31% -26.8%
≤90d 52 -9.0% -17.7% 33% 31% -26.8%
all 53 -10.7% -19.2% 32% 30% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 30% -27.0%
10% -26.9% 26% -34.0%
15% -34.0% 19% -40.4%
20% -40.5% 15% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$57 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$1,080
Realized−$1,030
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses17 / 36
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions7
Markets (closed)53 / 60
History coverage109d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $196 $191 −$5 (-3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 7.5 Corners Under 67¢ 65¢ $193 $188 −$5 (-3%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $180 $181 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 69¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $258 −$8 -3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $203 −$10 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $283 +$85 +30%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Team to Take First Corner Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $151 +$49 +33%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $153 −$151 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $368 +$89 +24%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $170 −$72 -43%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $151 +$48 +32%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 −$23 -23%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 −$1 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $15 −$2 -14%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $15 +$1 +3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $302 −$282 -94%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $784 −$482 -62%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 15 $25 −$1 -4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $91 −$3 -3%
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $102 −$6 -6%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $101 −$3 -3%
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $91 −$2 -2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $143 −$43 -30%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $36 +$4 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $186 −$149 -80%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $12 −$3 -25%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 14 $100 −$88 -88%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $122 −$73 -60%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $101 +$45 +44%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 13 $39 −$30 -77%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $199 −$89 -45%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $232 +$134 +58%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $101 −$22 -22%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$8 -8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$5 -5%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $35 +$21 +60%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$86 -85%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $31 −$5 -18%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $107 −$45 -42%
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $99 +$163 +165%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $30 +$16 +53%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $51 −$44 -86%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 +$12 +116%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $102 +$17 +17%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $51 +$51 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under 67¢ $195 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 62¢ $195 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 45¢ $201 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 47¢ $193 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $181 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $203 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 6h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Team to Take First Corner BUY Argentina 67¢ $101 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $101 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $201 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $153 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $298 19h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 36¢ $97 19h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 99¢ $199 20h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 40¢ $79 21h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 75¢ $151 24h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $151 25h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 25h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $69 33h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $19 33h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 33h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 SELL Over 4¢ $20 46h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $302 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $302 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,079.85 · official $1,079.85 (match) · 139 history records