Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:23:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2773…7b84 crypto 710 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (130 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate97%687W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day129.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (130 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 710 +0.1% -9.5% 97% 4% -9.4%
≤30d 710 +0.1% -9.5% 97% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 710 +0.1% -9.5% 97% 4% -9.4%
all 710 +0.1% -9.5% 97% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover129.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 4% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$12 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses687 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)710 / 710
History coverage6d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day129.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 710 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 89¢ 100¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+12%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 98¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$2 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $14 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $14 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.72 · official $15.72 (match) · 1396 history records