Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:24:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2773…8e89 crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$20 (-4%) realized −$18 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate65%17W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$44
other 11% +$32
finance 9% −$34
tech 9% +$8
sports 6% −$8
weather 4% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -6.7% -15.6% 65% 54% -14.8%
≤30d 26 -6.7% -15.6% 65% 54% -14.8%
≤90d 26 -6.7% -15.6% 65% 54% -14.8%
all 26 -6.7% -15.6% 65% 54% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 54% -14.8%
10% -23.7% 35% -23.0%
15% -31.1% 19% -30.4%
20% -37.8% 19% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses17 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage3d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Dua Lipa pregnant in 2026? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 28 $52 +$13 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$4 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 27? Jun 28 $20 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$3 +12%
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$1 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $51 −$34 -67%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$34 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.81 · official $56.81 (match) · 57 history records