Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:37:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2775…8994 other 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%18W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$12
14 days−$23
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% −$12
other 27% −$16
sports 18% −$11
crypto 10% −$6
economics 5% −$8
finance 3% $0
culture 3% −$5
world 3% −$1
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.6% -10.1% 19% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 60 -0.7% -10.2% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 116 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 129 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses18 / 111
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage100d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 18 $39 −$1 -4%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $413 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $144 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $152 −$1 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $30 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 15 $63 +$1 +1%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $51 −$1 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $46 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 14 $56 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 13 $123 −$2 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $155 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $41 −$2 -4%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 12 $151 $0 +0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $225 −$2 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $91 −$1 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $216 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $312 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $43 $0 -0%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 09 $46 $0 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 07 $52 −$2 -4%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $262 −$2 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 06 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $231 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 05 $49 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 05 $92 −$1 -1%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $54 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $54 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $51 −$1 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $146 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $418 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $159 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $199 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $127 −$2 -2%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $51 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $55 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $51 1h
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 92¢ $37 1h
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 95¢ $39 6h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $57 6h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $57 10h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $43 11h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $43 17h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $38 18h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $38 23h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $56 23h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $56 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 36h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $64 37h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $64 41h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $53 41h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $53 45h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $7 46h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $7 2d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 2d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $54 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $43 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $43 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $44 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $45 2d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 2d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 3d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 92¢ $30 3d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 92¢ $30 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $63 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.67 · official $50.67 (match) · 482 history records