Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:41:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
27 0x2776…4ecb sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+2%) realized −$56 · open +$110
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$319per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$875now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.2% -7.5% 88% 62% -7.6%
≤30d 8 +2.2% -7.5% 88% 62% -7.6%
≤90d 8 +2.2% -7.5% 88% 62% -7.6%
all 8 +2.2% -7.5% 88% 62% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 62% -7.6%
10% -16.4% 25% -16.5%
15% -24.5% 12% -24.6%
20% -31.9% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$300 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$875
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$110
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage5d
Avg bet$319
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5) Team Spirit 79¢ 91¢ $679 $780 +$101 (+15%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 82¢ 91¢ $86 $96 +$9 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1.5) Jun 20 $407 +$93 +23%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe Jun 20 $461 +$39 +8%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $302 −$300 -100%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 19 $368 +$132 +36%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $201 +$27 +13%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $552 +$40 +7%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $64 +$10 +15%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $68 +$10 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5) BUY Team Spirit 76¢ $230 1h
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5) BUY Team Spirit 81¢ $302 1h
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5) BUY Team Spirit 80¢ $65 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $87 1h
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5) BUY Team Spirit 82¢ $87 2h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe BUY OG 92¢ $461 42h
Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1.5) BUY OG 81¢ $204 45h
Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1.5) BUY OG 81¢ $204 45h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY Yangon Galacticos 50¢ $102 2d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY Yangon Galacticos 65¢ $101 2d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY Yangon Galacticos 71¢ $95 2d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY Yangon Galacticos 71¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Grind Back 73¢ $294 3d
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Grind Back 73¢ $74 3d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 88¢ $201 4d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 93¢ $399 4d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 93¢ $152 4d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 87¢ $64 4d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 87¢ $68 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $875.07 · official $875.07 (match) · 26 history records