Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
27 0x2778…7c0b sports 17 markets active 8d ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$640 (-9%) realized −$640 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$429per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$640
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +25.0% +13.1% 50% 50% +19.9%
≤90d 2 +25.0% +13.1% 50% 50% +19.9%
all 17 -16.0% -24.0% 41% 41% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 41% -17.5%
10% -31.3% 41% -25.4%
15% -37.9% 41% -32.6%
20% -44.0% 41% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$523) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -49% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$469 vs −$392 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$640
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage108d
Avg bet$429
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $12 +$8 +66%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 15 $8 −$1 -17%
Canadiens vs. Ducks Mar 07 $420 +$420 +100%
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets Mar 06 $1,009 +$931 +92%
Hurricanes vs. Oilers Mar 06 $523 −$523 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Devils Mar 05 $426 +$394 +92%
Thunder vs. Knicks Mar 04 $288 −$288 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers Mar 03 $370 +$315 +85%
Golden Knights vs. Sabres Mar 03 $185 −$185 -100%
Predators vs. Blue Jackets Mar 03 $352 −$352 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Mar 03 $428 −$428 -100%
Devils vs. Blues Mar 01 $172 +$172 +100%
Blues vs. Wild Mar 01 $604 −$604 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Penguins Mar 01 $1,108 −$1,108 -100%
Pelicans vs. Clippers Mar 01 $243 −$243 -100%
Sabres vs. Panthers Feb 28 $960 +$1,040 +108%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Feb 27 $188 −$188 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $12 7d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 60¢ $7 43d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 60¢ $1 43d
Hurricanes vs. Oilers BUY Oilers 48¢ $523 109d
Canadiens vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 50¢ $420 109d
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 52¢ $1,009 110d
Maple Leafs vs. Devils BUY Devils 52¢ $352 111d
Maple Leafs vs. Devils BUY Devils 52¢ $75 111d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 36¢ $213 111d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 36¢ $75 111d
Golden Knights vs. Sabres BUY Golden Knights 44¢ $122 112d
Golden Knights vs. Sabres BUY Golden Knights 44¢ $63 112d
Predators vs. Blue Jackets BUY Predators 44¢ $352 112d
Knicks vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 43¢ $428 112d
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers BUY Blue Jackets 54¢ $370 113d
Blues vs. Wild BUY Wild 69¢ $332 114d
Blues vs. Wild BUY Wild 69¢ $272 114d
Golden Knights vs. Penguins BUY Golden Knights 58¢ $1,108 114d
Pelicans vs. Clippers BUY Pelicans 31¢ $44 114d
Pelicans vs. Clippers BUY Pelicans 31¢ $164 114d
Pelicans vs. Clippers BUY Pelicans 31¢ $36 114d
Devils vs. Blues BUY Devils 50¢ $125 115d
Devils vs. Blues BUY Devils 50¢ $48 115d
Sabres vs. Panthers BUY Sabres 48¢ $738 116d
Sabres vs. Panthers BUY Sabres 48¢ $222 116d
Nuggets vs. Thunder BUY Nuggets 26¢ $188 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.