Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:34:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
27 0x277e…5cfc sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$326 (-22%) realized −$326 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$321
crypto 22% −$6
other 8% $0
finance 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 4 -40.5% -46.2% 50% 25% -71.3%
all 10 -3.0% -12.2% 70% 30% -31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 30% -31.2%
10% -20.6% 30% -37.7%
15% -28.3% 30% -43.8%
20% -35.3% 10% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% too few recent
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$176 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$326
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage222d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $114 $113 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 15 $114 $0 +0%
Will CA Osasuna vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Apr 13 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Newcastle vs. Tottenham end in a draw? Apr 13 $399 −$399 -100%
Will US Cremonese vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? Apr 13 $83 +$31 +38%
Will Solana reach $200 in February? Mar 05 $83 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 06 $83 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $123 $0 +0%
Warriors vs. 76ers: O/U 222.5 Dec 05 $59 +$64 +108%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 01 $39 −$7 -18%
Will Sevilla vs. Real Betis end in a draw? Dec 01 $260 +$106 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $34 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $114 38d
Will US Cremonese vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $83 86d
Will Solana reach $200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $83 130d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $83 158d
Will CA Osasuna vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $123 179d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $123 190d
Warriors vs. 76ers: O/U 222.5 BUY Under 48¢ $59 207d
Will Newcastle vs. Tottenham end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $399 209d
Will Sevilla vs. Real Betis end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $260 211d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $8 221d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $24 222d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 222d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 222d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.44 · official $113.44 (match) · 26 history records