Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:16:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
27 0x277f…5919 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$175 (+27%) realized +$224 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$135
world 31% −$49
other 23% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +26.9% +14.8% 60% 60% +26.3%
≤30d 5 +26.9% +14.8% 60% 60% +26.3%
≤90d 5 +26.9% +14.8% 60% 60% +26.3%
all 5 +26.9% +14.8% 60% 60% +26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.8% 60% +26.3%
10% +3.8% 60% +14.2%
15% -6.2% 60% +3.2%
20% -15.4% 60% -6.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$75 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized+$224
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage3d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 40¢ $200 $151 −$49 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $92 +$126 +137%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $102 +$109 +107%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$91 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $217 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $92 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $211 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 91¢ $193 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.41 · official $151.42 (match) · 10 history records