Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:42:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2782…a28a politics 120 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$8 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate25%19W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day81.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$69
14 days−$73
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 84% −$64
world 12% −$5
other 3% −$3
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -3.3% -12.5% 22% 3% -11.9%
≤30d 75 -4.8% -13.9% 25% 5% -12.0%
≤90d 75 -4.8% -13.9% 25% 5% -12.0%
all 75 -4.8% -13.9% 25% 5% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 5% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 4% -20.4%
15% -29.7% 4% -28.1%
20% -36.6% 1% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$229
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses19 / 56
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions45
Markets (closed)75 / 120
History coverage16d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day81.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $85 $87 +$2 (+2%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 89¢ 89¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 48¢ 52¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+7%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 10¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+133%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 80¢ 80¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? No 83¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? No 96¢ 90¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Iran nuclear test before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 62¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 88¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes $4 $2 −$1 (-35%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? Yes 34¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+28%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 88¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? No 74¢ 74¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? No 46¢ 54¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 75¢ 86¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+16%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 12 $19 −$2 -11%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 12 $43 −$2 -5%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4 $0 -7%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $289 −$7 -2%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 -2%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,436 −$54 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $540 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 12 $71 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 -1%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $17 $0 -0%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 12 $1 $0 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Kash Patel out by December 31? Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Jun 12 $2 $0 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +36%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Jun 12 $7 $0 -1%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $6 $0 -5%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 $0 -3%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $8 $0 -6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -8%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Weed rescheduled by December 31? Jun 12 $1 $0 -26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $37 −$1 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +104%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -44%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $1 $0 -24%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
New pandemic in 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 99¢ $2 24m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 99¢ $0 27m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 99¢ $0 28m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 99¢ $0 30m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 98¢ $100 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 99¢ $88 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 98¢ $11 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 99¢ $23 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $111 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 99¢ $112 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 46¢ $1 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 90¢ $4 3h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 3h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 3h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $1 5h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 95¢ $3 5h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 93¢ $5 5h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 64¢ $1 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL Yes 60¢ $1 5h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 99¢ $2 6h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $3 6h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $1 7h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 99¢ $2 7h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.80 · official $228.80 (match) · 1288 history records