Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:49:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
27 0x2786…b734 world 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 533d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate44%23W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$5
other 36% +$9
sports 15% −$12
politics 7% +$2
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.3% -9.3% 44% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 29 +13.3% +2.5% 34% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 40 +8.2% -2.1% 40% 8% -9.3%
all 52 +10.6% +0.0% 44% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.0% 8% -9.4%
10% -9.5% 4% -18.1%
15% -18.3% 4% -26.0%
20% -26.3% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses23 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage533d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 25 $79 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $35 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $51 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $80 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $37 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $21 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $40 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $36 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $42 −$2 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $31 −$1 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $48 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $99 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $81 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $155 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $114 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $36 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $85 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $43 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $38 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $54 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $2 $0 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $41 −$2 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $37 +$3 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $35 +$3 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $18 +$2 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $21 −$1 -4%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $781 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $190 +$2 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $7 +$1 +17%
Will Ashwin Adhin be the next president of Suriname after the election Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? May 20 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ole Miss win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Feb 23 $2 $0 -2%
Florida vs. Mississippi State Feb 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Less than 350 Detainers Lodged in next ICE update? Feb 03 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Jan 25 $12 $0 +1%
OG Shoots vs. Easy Jan 24 $10 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $23 47m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $16 47m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $35 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $35 29h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 35h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 35h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $32 39h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $32 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $42 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $41 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $37 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 91¢ $36 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $25 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $12 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $37 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $29 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $6 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $20 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $3 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $41 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $41 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $4 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $10 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $15 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 239 history records