Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:42:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2787…ed8d crypto 566 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$474 (+4%) realized +$360 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%312W / 254L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$19
14 days−$20
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$368
sports 34% +$727
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -4.2% -13.4% 48% 39% -24.0%
≤30d 53 -4.8% -13.8% 47% 38% -24.3%
≤90d 302 -10.2% -18.8% 44% 37% -21.1%
all 566 -2.2% -11.5% 55% 49% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 49% -6.4%
10% -19.9% 41% -15.4%
15% -27.7% 33% -23.6%
20% -34.8% 25% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 38% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$360
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses312 / 254
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)566 / 566
History coverage112d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 566 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 13.5 Yes 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets New York Mets 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5 Over 42¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 4.5 Under 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
LeBron James: Assists O/U 9.5 No 63¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$4 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$3 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$3 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 02 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 27 $12 −$9 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 27 $19 −$8 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 26 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 26 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 26 $20 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 26 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 26 $38 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 26 $19 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 26 $39 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 24 $28 −$19 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $7 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1786 history records