Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:57:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
27 0x2789…d148 sports 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$154 (+19%) realized +$154 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate62%18W / 11L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$36
14 days+$90
30 days+$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$94
other 26% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +21.6% +10.0% 67% 67% +13.9%
≤30d 23 +23.2% +11.4% 70% 65% +16.5%
≤90d 25 +16.1% +5.0% 64% 60% +8.5%
all 29 +13.2% +2.4% 62% 59% +6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.4% 59% +6.5%
10% -7.4% 48% -3.7%
15% -16.3% 38% -13.0%
20% -24.5% 34% -21.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$14 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$154
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses18 / 11
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage144d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 55¢ $15 $16 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $22 +$5 +23%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $18 +$12 +67%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $19 −$1 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $38 +$28 +75%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$3 +20%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $24 −$12 -50%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $28 +$4 +13%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $13 +$11 +87%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $15 +$3 +17%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $37 +$27 +72%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $13 +$11 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $37 −$23 -61%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $21 +$5 +25%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $57 −$18 -32%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $68 −$30 -44%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $10 $0 +4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15 −$8 -55%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 29 $31 +$33 +108%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $70 +$18 +26%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $13 −$3 -24%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 27 $13 +$10 +73%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $30 +$64 +212%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $30 +$18 +62%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $28 −$28 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $30 −$9 -30%
Will the Charlotte Hornets make the NBA Playoffs? Feb 26 $15 +$10 +65%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded? Feb 05 $44 +$18 +40%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Miami Heat? Feb 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded this season? Feb 01 $40 −$10 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $16 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 85¢ $27 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $22 6h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $18 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 43¢ $13 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $18 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 29¢ $12 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $14 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 24¢ $8 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 74¢ $14 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 69¢ $13 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 74¢ $14 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $25 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 53¢ $10 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $3 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $18 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 84¢ $15 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $41 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $13 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 35¢ $23 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $24 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 100¢ $24 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $13 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 53¢ $14 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.79 · official $15.79 (match) · 90 history records