Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:07:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
27 0x278b…43bf other 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$224 (+5%) realized +$254 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +323% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +268% what you keep after slip
Net edge+268%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate59%51W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,465now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$198
7 days+$229
14 days+$304
30 days+$368
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$23
world 21% +$51
sports 15% +$64
tech 10% −$3
crypto 9% −$51
finance 6% +$260
politics 5% −$93
economics 2% −$6
weather 1% −$20
culture 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+282.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +233.2% +201.4% 67% 67% +54.7%
≤30d 53 +439.7% +388.3% 70% 68% +16.0%
≤90d 86 +323.0% +282.7% 59% 57% -2.7%
all 86 +323.0% +282.7% 59% 57% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +282.7% 57% -2.7%
10% +246.1% 53% -12.0%
15% +212.7% 48% -20.5%
20% +182.0% 41% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +323% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +232% → late +414% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$22 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$1,465
Realized+$254
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses51 / 35
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions49
Markets (closed)86 / 135
History coverage50d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $140 $142 +$2 (+1%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $102 $108 +$7 (+7%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $102 $104 +$2 (+2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 96¢ $86 $98 +$12 (+14%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $71 $73 +$2 (+4%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 69¢ $67 $64 −$2 (-3%)
US military draft authorized in 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $61 $63 +$2 (+3%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 82¢ 78¢ $61 $58 −$3 (-5%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 40¢ 46¢ $47 $55 +$7 (+16%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 79¢ 90¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+14%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $41 $45 +$4 (+9%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 40¢ 40¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-1%)
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 99¢ $30 $40 +$11 (+37%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 97¢ 95¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $31 $33 +$2 (+6%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No 44¢ 44¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 60¢ 59¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-3%)
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? Yes 31¢ 33¢ $26 $28 +$2 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 43¢ 54¢ $21 $26 +$5 (+25%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 50¢ 46¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-7%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 68¢ 90¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+32%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 82¢ 92¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 24 $111 +$245 +221%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 23 $19 −$18 -97%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $51 +$10 +19%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $100 +$43 +44%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $57 +$20 +36%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $31 +$13 +44%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $92 −$55 -60%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $31 +$17 +55%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 +$17 +40%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$12 +38%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 −$22 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $32 +$31 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $31 +$24 +77%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $61 +$29 +47%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $17 +$71 +425%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $22 −$21 -98%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $132 +$3 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $66 −$66 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 11 $24 −$23 -96%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $26 +$19 +74%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $47 +$39 +82%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 10 $14 +$16 +118%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $22 +$16 +70%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 10 $25 +$1 +4%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $40 +$34 +86%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $21 +$23 +111%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $31 −$31 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $15 +$12 +77%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $57 −$56 -99%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $15 +$6 +43%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $15 +$4 +28%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $15 +$2 +14%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $44 +$8 +19%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $18 −$16 -90%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 03 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $15 +$2 +15%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $15 −$15 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $15 +$13 +82%
Named storm forms before hurricane season? Jun 02 $15 +$1 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $30 +$11 +37%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $16 +$25 +158%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $30 −$29 -97%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 31 $15 +$10 +65%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? May 31 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 30 $53 −$22 -41%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $16 +$16 +102%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $15 +$5 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $25 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 55¢ $31 2h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 72¢ $67 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 40¢ $43 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $25 20h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 53¢ $69 21h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? BUY No 44¢ $32 26h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 90¢ $71 28h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 81¢ $126 29h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 32h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $48 33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 50¢ $26 2d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 9¢ $19 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $40 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 54¢ $80 2d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $22 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $36 6d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $31 6d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $13 6d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $103 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY No 96¢ $71 6d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $57 6d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $51 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 82¢ $62 7d
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $40 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $15 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $41 8d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,465.04 · official $1,450.00 · 307 history records