Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:37:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
27 0x2791…aab0 crypto 1745 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$91 (-1%) realized −$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate90%1575W / 170L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day34.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days+$7
14 days+$22
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 293 +1.1% -8.6% 91% 51% -9.2%
≤30d 1028 +0.6% -8.9% 90% 53% -9.1%
≤90d 1745 +0.4% -9.1% 90% 53% -9.3%
all 1745 +0.4% -9.1% 90% 53% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 53% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses1575 / 170
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1745 / 1745
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day34.1
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1745 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records