Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:27:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2791…e483 crypto 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$609 (-13%) realized −$609 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%43W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$495
7 days−$542
14 days−$827
30 days−$827
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$866
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -7.6% -16.4% 48% 46% -21.4%
≤30d 92 -10.5% -19.0% 47% 46% -25.3%
≤90d 92 -10.5% -19.0% 47% 46% -25.3%
all 96 -14.2% -22.4% 45% 44% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 44% -25.9%
10% -29.8% 33% -33.0%
15% -36.6% 22% -39.5%
20% -42.8% 20% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$42 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$609
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses43 / 53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage264d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$1 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6PM ET Jun 27 $77 +$25 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6PM ET Jun 27 $168 −$163 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 4PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET Jun 27 $44 −$25 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12PM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $91 +$113 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET Jun 26 $100 +$105 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$6 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3PM ET Jun 26 $374 +$140 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$70 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11AM ET Jun 26 $249 +$55 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET Jun 26 $23 −$21 -91%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET Jun 26 $108 +$45 +41%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 7AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7AM ET Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6AM ET Jun 26 $103 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET Jun 26 $45 +$156 +346%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$15 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 7PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$3 +173%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $110 −$107 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +30%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 12AM ET Jun 25 $33 +$76 +229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8PM ET Jun 25 $12 +$12 +97%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5PM ET Jun 24 $33 −$33 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET Jun 24 $39 +$35 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET Jun 24 $143 +$49 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $74 +$3 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $153 −$153 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET Jun 24 $39 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET Jun 24 $35 +$8 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6PM ET Jun 23 $43 −$10 -23%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET Jun 23 $49 +$9 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET Jun 23 $35 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $166 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 4PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $7 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $16 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $16 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $9 7h
XRP Up or Down on June 27? SELL Up 100¢ $204 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $98 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $22 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 27h
XRP Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 43¢ $91 27h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $235 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $138 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $30 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $246 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 64¢ $2 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $4 33h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 306 history records