trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 13 | $14 | −$1 | -6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 12 | $49 | −$6 | -13% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 10 | $49 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 10 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York | Jun 29 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 20 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? | May 20 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | May 08 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Apr 19 | $1 | $0 | -9% |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 18 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump issue a Gold Card by Friday? | Apr 17 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian E | Apr 16 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 28 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? | Mar 21 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? | Mar 19 | $1 | $0 | +8% |
| Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 17 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on March 17? | Mar 17 | $1 | −$1 | -44% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -3.8% | -13.0% | 40% | 0% | -12.8% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -3.8% | -13.0% | 40% | 0% | -12.8% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -3.8% | -13.0% | 40% | 0% | -12.8% |
| all | 18 | -14.3% | -22.4% | 56% | 0% | -15.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -22.4% | 0% | -15.3% |
| 10% | -29.9% | 0% | -23.4% |
| 15% | -36.6% | 0% | -30.8% |
| 20% | -42.8% | 0% | -37.6% |