Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:40:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
27 0x2792…c4f6 sports 463 markets active 17h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,501 (+6%) realized +$4,501 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%227W / 235L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Fees−$1,203est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,085
7 days+$3,492
14 days+$3,492
30 days−$2,012
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,245
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 +0.4% -9.2% 46% 45% +5.8%
≤30d 305 -4.0% -13.1% 47% 46% -13.1%
≤90d 462 +1.8% -7.9% 49% 48% -5.9%
all 462 +1.8% -7.9% 49% 48% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 48% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 48% -14.9%
15% -24.8% 43% -23.1%
20% -32.1% 35% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$170 vs −$150 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,501
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses227 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$1,203
Open positions0
Markets (closed)462 / 463
History coverage36d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 462 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $240 −$240 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,002 +$410 +41%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5) Jun 23 $50 +$26 +53%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Jun 23 $50 +$19 +37%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $50 +$118 +236%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 23 $283 −$283 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 23 $788 −$788 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $50 +$48 +96%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $74 −$74 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 22 $1 $0 +37%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 22 $50 +$41 +82%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 21 $4 +$1 +32%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $50 +$20 +41%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $50 +$11 +22%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $50 +$56 +113%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $2 +$1 +75%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $3 +$2 +72%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $50 +$28 +56%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 21 $36 +$16 +45%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 21 $50 +$31 +61%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 21 $66 +$54 +82%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $62 −$62 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $128 +$527 +411%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $3 +$2 +52%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 20 $31 +$9 +28%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $33 +$169 +507%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $120 −$120 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 15¢ $35 17h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $50 17h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $190 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $0 18h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 64¢ $50 18h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 70¢ $1,002 18h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $50 18h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 72¢ $50 19h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 66¢ $31 19h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 18¢ $283 19h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 29¢ $50 19h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 12¢ $50 20h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 8¢ $18 20h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 18¢ $3 20h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 28¢ $22 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 9¢ $50 20h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 50¢ $50 21h
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 53¢ $3 21h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,000 21h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 42¢ $788 21h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 56¢ $49 22h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 72¢ $1 44h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 9¢ $50 47h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 13¢ $50 47h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 70¢ $50 2d
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 75¢ $4 2d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 75¢ $50 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $50 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 81¢ $50 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1235 history records