Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:59:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
27 0x2797…044c crypto 952 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$125 (+0%) realized +$46 · open +$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate79%751W / 196L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$764now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 169d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$622
finance 14% +$979
tech 12% −$1,428
other 6% −$290
sports 4% −$1,616
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +3.2% -6.6% 82% 76% -4.7%
≤30d 203 -6.6% -15.5% 73% 56% -19.3%
≤90d 553 -0.2% -9.7% 83% 51% -10.2%
all 947 -2.2% -11.5% 79% 49% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 49% -11.2%
10% -20.0% 20% -19.7%
15% -27.7% 10% -27.5%
20% -34.8% 8% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$150 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$764
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses751 / 196
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions5
Markets (closed)947 / 952
History coverage169d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 947 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Down 80¢ 100¢ $240 $300 +$60 (+25%)
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 16? Yes 80¢ 87¢ $240 $261 +$21 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Down 95¢ 100¢ $190 $200 +$10 (+5%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 16? Yes 85¢ 48¢ $6 $3 −$2 (-44%)
FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on June 16? Down 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $255 +$45 +18%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $177 −$173 -97%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $55 −$53 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $45 +$24 +52%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $195 +$105 +54%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $264 +$36 +14%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 15? Jun 15 $255 +$45 +18%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $176 +$24 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $61 −$59 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $213 −$208 -98%
XRP Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $270 +$30 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $264 +$36 +14%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 12? Jun 12 $180 +$20 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $180 +$20 +11%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on June 12? Jun 12 $211 +$29 +14%
XRP Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $285 +$84 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $270 +$30 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $242 +$58 +24%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $200 +$300 +150%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 11 $165 +$33 +20%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 11? Jun 11 $214 +$86 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $178 +$32 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $140 +$35 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $111 +$29 +26%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 10? Jun 10 $180 +$20 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $266 +$34 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $232 +$58 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $207 +$13 +6%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on June 10? Jun 10 $180 −$180 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 9? Jun 09 $160 +$40 +25%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 09 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on June 9? Jun 09 $255 +$45 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $225 +$75 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4AM ET Jun 09 $283 +$31 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $360 +$40 +11%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 9? Jun 09 $375 −$375 -100%
Solana Up or Down on May 18? Jun 08 $1,506 −$704 -47%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 8? Jun 08 $270 +$30 +11%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $264 +$36 +14%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 8? Jun 08 $180 +$120 +67%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $366 +$366 +100%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 05 $234 −$230 -98%
XRP Up or Down on June 5? Jun 04 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 04 $270 +$30 +11%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $270 +$30 +11%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $270 +$30 +11%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 on June 4? Jun 04 $240 +$60 +25%
Barcelona vs. CB Murcia Jun 04 $201 −$200 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 1¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $190 1h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 0¢ $0 1h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 0¢ $1 1h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 0¢ $1 1h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 0¢ $0 1h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 0¢ $3 1h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 0¢ $1 1h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 0¢ $1 1h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 0¢ $0 1h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 0¢ $1 1h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 0¢ $0 1h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 0¢ $1 1h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 0¢ $1 1h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 0¢ $0 1h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 0¢ $1 1h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 0¢ $0 1h
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 0¢ $5 2h
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 0¢ $21 2h
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 0¢ $10 2h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 0¢ $31 2h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 0¢ $5 2h
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 0¢ $14 2h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 0¢ $10 2h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 0¢ $1 2h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 0¢ $15 2h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 0¢ $19 2h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 0¢ $24 2h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 16? BUY Yes 80¢ $240 2h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 1¢ $52 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $764.22 · official $764.22 (match) · 2943 history records