Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:44:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
27 0x279b…b50c other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$136 (-4%) realized −$64 · open −$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,016per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.6% -12.8% 0% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 1 -3.6% -12.8% 0% 0% -12.8%
≤90d 1 -3.6% -12.8% 0% 0% -12.8%
all 1 -3.6% -12.8% 0% 0% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 0% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 0% -21.1%
15% -28.8% 0% -28.8%
20% -35.7% 0% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$99 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$245
Realized−$64
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1 / 3
History coverage13d
Avg bet$1,016
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $314 $243 −$71 (-23%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $2,723 −$99 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.58 · official $244.58 (match) · 30 history records