Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:49:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
27 0x279c…2b82 world 91 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (236 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$7,992 (+49%) realized +$8,890 · open −$898
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +362% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +255% what you keep after slip
Net edge+255%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%20W / 14L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day236.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$13,656now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$13,311
other 35% −$550
tech 21% −$335
finance 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (236 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+317.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +518.4% +459.5% 70% 70% +303.1%
≤30d 34 +361.5% +317.5% 59% 59% +190.4%
≤90d 34 +361.5% +317.5% 59% 59% +190.4%
all 34 +361.5% +317.5% 59% 59% +190.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover236.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +317.5% 59% +190.4%
10% ← realistic here +277.6% 59% +162.6%
15% +241.1% 53% +137.3%
20% +207.7% 50% +114.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +317% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +361% · $-wt +317% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +296% → late +427% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
20.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$707 vs −$60 · ×11.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.79 per $1 lost it wins $16.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$13,656
Realized+$8,890
Unrealized−$898
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses20 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions85
Markets (closed)34 / 91
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$179
Trades / day236.5
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 85 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $832 $845 +$13 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $763 $817 +$55 (+7%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026? No 43¢ 44¢ $698 $716 +$17 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $642 $645 +$4 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $1,060 $638 −$423 (-40%)
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2027? Yes 90¢ 91¢ $548 $551 +$4 (+1%)
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2027? Yes 63¢ 74¢ $452 $531 +$79 (+17%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? No 74¢ 76¢ $476 $485 +$9 (+2%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 92¢ 92¢ $478 $480 +$2 (+0%)
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 66¢ $403 $467 +$63 (+16%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? No 24¢ 24¢ $399 $402 +$4 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $349 $352 +$3 (+1%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes 82¢ 88¢ $317 $343 +$26 (+8%)
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by June 30? No 83¢ 93¢ $303 $340 +$37 (+12%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026? No 35¢ 40¢ $290 $333 +$43 (+15%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $318 $319 +$1 (+0%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $315 $308 −$7 (-2%)
Will Tempo launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $278 $281 +$2 (+1%)
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 54¢ 56¢ $268 $280 +$12 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? No 69¢ 73¢ $260 $274 +$14 (+6%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026? No 33¢ 32¢ $288 $271 −$17 (-6%)
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by November 30, 2026? No 56¢ 72¢ $186 $243 +$56 (+30%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 87¢ 86¢ $228 $226 −$2 (-1%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026? No 15¢ 16¢ $213 $214 +$1 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $212 $211 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 22 $7 +$12 +183%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $5 +$19 +354%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 22 $42 −$7 -18%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $159 +$143 +90%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 22 $20 +$3,225 +15996%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $510 +$2,873 +564%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $90 −$23 -25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $256 +$351 +137%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $5 +$173 +3369%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 18 $349 +$630 +181%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $492 −$206 -42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $15 +$1,343 +9106%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $284 +$131 +46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $361 −$317 -88%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $49 −$2 -5%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $82 −$16 -19%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $37 +$843 +2267%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$61 +614%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $7 −$2 -34%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 15 $43 −$42 -97%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $9 +$13 +140%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $95 +$66 +70%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $71 +$909 +1276%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $281 +$893 +317%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $211 +$2,039 +967%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $262 −$169 -64%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $193 +$371 +193%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $9 +$2 +25%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $179 +$48 +27%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 10m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 10m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 12m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 15m
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? BUY No 41¢ $14 21m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 21m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $8 22m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 22m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 22m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $7 22m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 65¢ $6 24m
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? BUY No 39¢ $11 24m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 65¢ $9 27m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 42m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 45m
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $5 47m
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 48m
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 48m
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 50m
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 50m
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 51m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 51m
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 52m
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 53m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 57m
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $22 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? BUY No 72¢ $4 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,656.19 · official $13,662.84 (match) · 3500 history records