Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:32:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
27 0x279d…5e89 sports 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,447 (+9%) realized +$2,210 · open +$237
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate41%25W / 36L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$411per market
Trades / day41.5pace
Fees−$460est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$989now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,943
7 days+$2,074
14 days+$2,083
30 days+$2,217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$2,400
other 31% +$112
world 1% −$55
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +17.7% +6.5% 41% 21% +2.1%
≤30d 61 +47.4% +33.4% 41% 23% -0.4%
≤90d 61 +47.4% +33.4% 41% 23% -0.4%
all 61 +47.4% +33.4% 41% 23% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +33.4% 23% -0.4%
10% ← realistic here +20.6% 18% -9.9%
15% +9.0% 16% -18.6%
20% -1.7% 15% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +81% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$31 · ×4.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.0 per $1 lost it wins $3.0
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$989
Realized+$2,210
Unrealized+$237
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses25 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$460
Open positions3
Markets (closed)61 / 64
History coverage18d
Avg bet$411
Trades / day41.5
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 73¢ 100¢ $722 $988 +$266 (+37%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 3¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,612 +$82 +5%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,064 +$8 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $566 +$16 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $395 −$10 -2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $206 −$11 -5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,116 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $84 −$28 -33%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $55 +$814 +1472%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,523 −$32 -1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $599 −$11 -2%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,245 +$384 +31%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $507 +$209 +41%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1,124 −$155 -14%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $208 −$25 -12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,865 +$58 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $344 −$11 -3%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $39 −$38 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $819 +$817 +100%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-05-30? Jun 16 $204 +$9 +4%
Molde FK vs. Sandefjord Fotball: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $35 +$3 +8%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $301 +$31 +10%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $11 −$3 -24%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $501 −$79 -16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $244 +$30 +12%
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $387 −$86 -22%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1,066 +$88 +8%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $90 +$108 +120%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $301 −$101 -33%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $228 +$209 +92%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $323 −$23 -7%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $377 −$35 -9%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $113 +$9 +8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $90 −$2 -3%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $875 −$3 -0%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $1,578 +$50 +3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $646 −$35 -6%
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $447 −$75 -17%
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $205 +$44 +21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $451 +$28 +6%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $97 +$186 +191%
Will CD Leganés win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $150 +$4 +2%
Will CD Mirandés win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $160 −$55 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $15 0m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $104 0m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 0m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $2 1m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $383 1m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 4m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 79¢ $307 16m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 79¢ $200 16m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 79¢ $2 16m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 79¢ $92 16m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 79¢ $7 16m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 79¢ $5 16m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 79¢ $1 16m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 79¢ $15 16m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 79¢ $5 16m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 79¢ $3 16m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 79¢ $50 16m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 79¢ $56 16m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 79¢ $4 16m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 78¢ $2 16m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 78¢ $8 16m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 78¢ $1 16m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 78¢ $5 16m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 78¢ $19 16m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 78¢ $1 16m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 78¢ $250 17m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 78¢ $39 17m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1,064 17m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 6¢ $7 41m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 6¢ $3 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $988.93 · official $988.93 (match) · 776 history records