Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:51:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

27
0x279e…8f57
other · 43 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$4,728 +50%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,827 · open −$207
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,882
Realized+$4,827
Unrealized−$207
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses8 / 23
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions11
Markets (closed)31 / 43
History coverage155d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit49%
Chart Positions 11 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$27
14 days−$23
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 33¢ $1,000 $843 −$157 (-16%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $800 $749 −$51 (-6%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-3%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+19%)
Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals Yes 19¢ 50¢ $10 $27 +$17 (+166%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Yes 50¢ 40¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 45¢ 55¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 60¢ 30¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-51%)
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Eric Cole win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Thunder 38¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Michael Brennan win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Arvell Reese be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? No 48¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the US strike Cuba nex Yes 8¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$33 +161%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$24 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 02 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Eric Cole win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? May 31 $45 −$44 -99%
Will J.J. Spaun win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? May 31 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Michael Brennan win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mac Meissner win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? May 31 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $30 −$30 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $802 +$76 +9%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? May 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals Apr 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Arvell Reese be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 24 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Apr 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Feb 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the US strike Iran next? Jan 14 $50 +$22 +44%
Will the US strike Syria next? Jan 14 $50 +$7 +14%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the US strike Cuba nex Jan 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the US strike Syria next? Jan 12 $662 +$294 +44%
Will the US strike Syria next? Jan 12 $4,046 +$4,933 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 65% +$5,063
politics 31% −$208
sports 2% −$113
world 2% −$103
crypto 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 31m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 60¢ $15 41m
Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $15 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 100¢ $20 28h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 42h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 10d
Will Eric Cole win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 13d
Will Eric Cole win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 13d
Will J.J. Spaun win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 13d
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 13d
Will Michael Brennan win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 13d
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 14d
Will Mac Meissner win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 14d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 14d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 14d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 52¢ $154 25d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 41¢ $5 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 35¢ $5 26d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 25¢ $824 27d
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? SELL Yes 100¢ $878 27d
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 91¢ $802 27d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 25¢ $1,096 27d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 28d
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 29d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-57.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +29.9% +17.5% 50% 50% +27.7%
≤30d 16 -48.6% -53.5% 25% 19% -10.9%
≤90d 22 -62.6% -66.2% 18% 14% -20.2%
all 31 -53.3% -57.8% 26% 23% +60.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.8% 23% +60.4%
10% -61.8% 19% +45.0%
15% -65.5% 19% +31.0%
20% -68.9% 13% +18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,882.50 · official $1,882.50 (match) · 156 history records