Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:32:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x279f…2deb crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$14 (-2%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%3W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 132d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$283
other 26% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-50.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -44.1% -49.4% 23% 23% -36.4%
≤30d 13 -44.1% -49.4% 23% 23% -36.4%
≤90d 13 -44.1% -49.4% 23% 23% -36.4%
all 16 -44.7% -50.0% 19% 19% -37.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.0% 19% -37.8%
10% -54.7% 19% -43.8%
15% -59.1% 19% -49.2%
20% -63.1% 12% -54.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$27 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses3 / 13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage132d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $103 −$99 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$55 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $43 −$16 -38%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $151 +$72 +48%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 23 $29 −$4 -16%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 23? Jun 23 $21 −$13 -61%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $53 −$43 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Feb 12 $18 −$18 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 12? Feb 12 $10 −$2 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 12? Feb 12 $13 −$3 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $107 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? SELL No 20¢ $26 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 29¢ $25 7h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 18¢ $24 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 28¢ $18 7h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 23? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 7h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $29 9h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 23? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 9¢ $53 12h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $151 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $18 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 12? SELL Down 18¢ $8 132d
Ethereum Up or Down on February 12? SELL Down 16¢ $10 132d
Ethereum Up or Down on February 12? BUY Down 21¢ $13 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 12? BUY Down 22¢ $10 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.14 · official $36.14 (match) · 33 history records