Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:09:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27a0…cd28 crypto 227 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,024 (-9%) realized −$3,022 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%89W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$914
7 days+$914
14 days+$795
30 days+$795
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,350
other 0% −$23
politics 0% −$9
world 0% −$26
finance 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +2.6% -7.1% 47% 42% +15.9%
≤30d 26 -3.1% -12.3% 46% 42% +8.2%
≤90d 225 -14.3% -22.4% 40% 38% -15.8%
all 225 -14.3% -22.4% 40% 38% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 38% -15.8%
10% -29.9% 36% -23.8%
15% -36.6% 34% -31.2%
20% -42.8% 32% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$124 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$170
Realized−$3,022
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses89 / 136
Open positions2
Markets (closed)225 / 227
History coverage92d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $115 $114 −$1 (-1%)
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 52¢ 50¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $73 −$62 -84%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $248 +$206 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 21 $168 −$168 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $254 −$254 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 21 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $209 −$16 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $165 −$165 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $168 +$105 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$47 -45%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $144 +$117 +81%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$16 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $279 +$365 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$71 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $541 +$499 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $168 +$272 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $208 +$319 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $67 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $115 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $75 +$41 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $161 −$156 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $168 −$160 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $166 +$163 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $109 +$128 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 10 $52 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 10 $69 −$65 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 10 $125 −$120 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 07 $71 −$69 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 07 $146 −$141 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 07 $90 −$86 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 07 $153 +$151 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 07 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 07 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 07 $63 +$54 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 07 $52 +$36 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 07 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 07 $107 −$104 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 07 $83 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 07 $65 −$61 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 07 $63 −$61 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 07 $127 −$122 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 07 $100 +$119 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 07 $143 +$223 +156%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House May 07 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 06 $94 −$40 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 15 $221 −$210 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 15 $200 −$190 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 15 $120 +$298 +247%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $119 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $59 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $11 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $73 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $57 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $101 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $41 25m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $261 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $41 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $14 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $30 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $37 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $62 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $203 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $63 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $242 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $136 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $279 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $174 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $181 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $165 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $90 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $275 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $536 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.01 · official $170.01 (match) · 813 history records