Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:10:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27a1…63e5 other 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$20 (-35%) realized −$23 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -76% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip
Net edge-80%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$14
crypto 13% −$6
sports 9% +$11
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-78.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -76.3% -78.5% 4% 4% -43.8%
≤30d 23 -76.3% -78.5% 4% 4% -43.8%
≤90d 23 -76.3% -78.5% 4% 4% -43.8%
all 23 -76.3% -78.5% 4% 4% -43.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -78.5% 4% -43.8%
10% -80.6% 4% -49.2%
15% -82.4% 4% -54.1%
20% -84.2% 4% -58.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -76% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -87% → late -66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×10.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)23 / 38
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$11 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Kaoru Mitoma record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -61%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Rodrygo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 15m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $16 17m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 49m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? BUY Yes $1 17h
Will Kaoru Mitoma record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 20h
Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 20h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 20h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 20h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes $2 21h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes $1 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $0 24h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes $1 25h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 25h
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes $1 41h
Will Curaçao win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 42h
Will Luka Modrić record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 44h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 44h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 44h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 45h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes $1 45h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes $1 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.20 · official $22.13 (match) · 46 history records