Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:22:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27a1…f257 sports 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$46 (-5%) realized −$52 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate68%75W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$57
14 days−$55
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$19
other 16% −$58
crypto 3% −$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 +18.0% +6.8% 68% 52% -15.6%
≤30d 111 +19.0% +7.7% 68% 52% -14.4%
≤90d 111 +19.0% +7.7% 68% 52% -14.4%
all 111 +19.0% +7.7% 68% 52% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.7% 52% -14.4%
10% -2.6% 41% -22.6%
15% -12.0% 30% -30.0%
20% -20.6% 20% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses75 / 36
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)111 / 116
History coverage16d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 45¢ 100¢ $6 $13 +$7 (+122%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +56%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +129%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 $0 +9%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 +$2 +49%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $4 +$1 +30%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$14 +223%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $8 +$2 +26%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -67%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $6 −$3 -47%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +50%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $7 +$3 +40%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $34 +$2 +5%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$7 +34%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 −$5 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $3 3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $32 8h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 19h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $2 19h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 94¢ $1 19h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 92¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 19h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $2 19h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 76¢ $4 20h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 20h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $2 20h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $2 20h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $3 20h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $2 20h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 34¢ $3 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 22h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 23h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $2 23h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $2 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 26h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.66 · official $17.66 (match) · 387 history records