Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27a8…71cc sports 12 markets active 5d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$21 (-40%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$3
crypto 31% −$12
sports 28% −$7
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-45.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -34.6% -40.8% 27% 27% -46.3%
≤30d 12 -40.0% -45.8% 25% 25% -47.4%
≤90d 12 -40.0% -45.8% 25% 25% -47.4%
all 12 -40.0% -45.8% 25% 25% -47.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.8% 25% -47.4%
10% -50.9% 25% -52.4%
15% -55.7% 25% -57.0%
20% -60.0% 17% -61.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -85% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$3 -56%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -10%
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? Jun 10 $1 $0 -8%
Ethereum above 1,700 on June 10, 1PM ET? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum above 1,690 on June 10, 1PM ET? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-5.5) vs NRG (+5.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-3.5) vs Leo Team (+3.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $1 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 65¢ $3 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $5 6d
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 6d
Ethereum above 1,700 on June 10, 1PM ET? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 6d
Ethereum above 1,690 on June 10, 1PM ET? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 6d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-5.5) vs NRG (+5.5) SELL FUT Esports 1¢ $0 6d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-5.5) vs NRG (+5.5) BUY FUT Esports 99¢ $5 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-3.5) vs Leo Team (+3.5) BUY KOLESIE 50¢ $5 6d
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records