Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27ab…b548 crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 587d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$77 (-25%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$42
14 days−$42
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$66
other 35% −$107
politics 26% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-39.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +8.1% -2.2% 50% 50% -50.1%
≤30d 4 +8.1% -2.2% 50% 50% -50.1%
≤90d 4 +8.1% -2.2% 50% 50% -50.1%
all 9 -33.1% -39.5% 33% 33% -44.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.5% 33% -44.6%
10% -45.3% 33% -49.9%
15% -50.6% 33% -54.8%
20% -55.4% 33% -59.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$33 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

587d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage587d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $47 −$43 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$22 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Ashton Hall x Saratoga sponsorship confirmed in March? Mar 26 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $80 +$55 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $10 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $5 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $10 93d
Ashton Hall x Saratoga sponsorship confirmed in March? BUY Yes 69¢ $59 446d
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? BUY Yes 33¢ $48 576d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 99¢ $56 586d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 99¢ $79 586d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 58¢ $80 587d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records