Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:01:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
27 0x27b3…6a01 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 47d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$372 (+60%) realized +$360 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$477
7 days+$486
14 days+$486
30 days+$486
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% +$474
other 32% +$19
world 10% −$60
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +77.8% +60.9% 100% 100% +115.8%
≤30d 3 +77.8% +60.9% 100% 100% +115.8%
≤90d 5 +24.2% +12.4% 60% 60% +78.1%
all 5 +24.2% +12.4% 60% 60% +78.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.4% 60% +78.1%
10% +1.6% 60% +61.1%
15% -8.2% 60% +45.5%
20% -17.2% 20% +31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +97% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +97% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$32 · ×5.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.7 per $1 lost it wins $7.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized+$360
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)5 / 11
History coverage47d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $60 $68 +$8 (+14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $43 $51 +$8 (+20%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-15%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $331 +$477 +144%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 18 $26 −$3 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 98¢ $809 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 4d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 12d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 12d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 62¢ $102 22d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 57¢ $22 34d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 15¢ $60 42d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 36¢ $37 46d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 63¢ $26 46d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 34¢ $1 46d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 34¢ $127 47d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 34¢ $65 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.53 · official $194.53 (match) · 35 history records