Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27b3…a11b world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate37%16W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% $0
politics 29% −$5
other 29% +$7
tech 6% +$1
sports 2% −$11
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +22.2% +10.5% 29% 14% -10.6%
≤30d 9 +17.2% +6.0% 22% 11% -10.3%
≤90d 21 +7.4% -2.8% 19% 5% -9.8%
all 43 +3.7% -6.2% 37% 19% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 19% -9.9%
10% -15.2% 19% -18.5%
15% -23.4% 14% -26.4%
20% -30.9% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses16 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage528d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 68¢ $32 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -41%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $19 $0 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $37 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $67 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $37 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 27 $160 −$4 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $112 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $116 −$1 -1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $254 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $136 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $158 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $254 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $70 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $4 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $33 +$2 +5%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $112 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 23 $2 +$1 +47%
Will Maomao win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for 2025? May 20 $7 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 20 $5 $0 +5%
Will Armenia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 16 $2 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? May 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $4 $0 -3%
Lipscomb vs. Austin Peay Mar 04 $5 +$2 +28%
Will Dwight Howard make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Feb 24 $3 +$2 +72%
Hill vs. Souza Feb 15 $4 $0 -4%
Boston Univ. vs. Bucknell Feb 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Bills" during Super Bowl pregame interview? Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Tennessee vs. Kentucky Feb 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Utah vs. Hurricanes Feb 09 $4 +$2 +43%
Jazz vs. Suns Feb 09 $5 +$2 +32%
Will there be less than 400k rides on the DC metro on Jan 20? Feb 06 $9 +$4 +41%
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jan 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? Jan 07 $8 +$3 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $29 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $19 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $9 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $36 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $18 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $18 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $17 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $16 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $5 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $29 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $33 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $33 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $37 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $37 9d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W SELL No 52¢ $102 52d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W BUY No 52¢ $103 52d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 90¢ $113 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.64 · official $32.40 (match) · 121 history records