Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:11:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27b8…a6bd crypto 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 554d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$172 (-9%) realized −$132 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate54%26W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$36
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$281
other 28% +$12
politics 7% +$1
sports 3% +$5
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -16.4% -24.4% 44% 44% -16.0%
≤30d 19 -15.0% -23.1% 47% 47% -15.7%
≤90d 21 -15.3% -23.4% 48% 48% -14.9%
all 48 -12.0% -20.4% 54% 31% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 31% -20.1%
10% -28.0% 29% -27.7%
15% -35.0% 29% -34.7%
20% -41.4% 27% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$29 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

554d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$132
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses26 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)48 / 51
History coverage554d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 52¢ 12¢ $23 $5 −$18 (-77%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 30¢ 8¢ $15 $4 −$11 (-73%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 35¢ 8¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$21 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $31 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$17 +67%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$20 +78%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$24 +91%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 29 $60 +$43 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 29 $60 +$49 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 29 $31 −$30 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$11 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$15 +59%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 29 $10 +$12 +119%
Mauthausen: Sandro Kopp vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 22 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 30 $8 +$5 +63%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Mar 07 $50 −$49 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Mar 07 $50 +$50 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 07 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Mar 07 $50 −$49 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Mar 07 $50 +$48 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Mar 07 $50 +$55 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Mar 07 $50 +$49 +97%
Will Union Progressiste pour le Renouveau (UPR) win the most seats in Mar 07 $13 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Mar 07 $50 −$49 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 7, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Mar 07 $50 −$49 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Mar 07 $50 −$49 -98%
Clippers vs. Lakers Jan 19 $16 +$6 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Nov 28 $104 −$104 -100%
Will “Frankenstein” be the top global Netflix movie this week? (Novemb Nov 20 $16 $0 +1%
Will Trump talk to Ahmed Al Shara in November? Nov 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2? Nov 07 $15 $0 +0%
Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Edition Nov 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings? Oct 14 $17 −$2 -10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on September 14? Sep 28 $17 $0 +1%
Plasma >$800M market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Sep 11 $17 $0 +2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win The Bronx in the New York City Mayoral Democrati Jul 07 $17 $0 -0%
Will the National Council for the Defense of Democracy – Forces for th Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the May 16 $16 $0 +1%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Apr 21 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 26 $31 $0 +1%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 10 $510 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $13 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 27m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 41m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 41m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $7 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $43 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.53 · official $7.85 · 130 history records