Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27b9…90d0 other 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$147 (-4%) realized −$238 · open +$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$808now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$164
world 20% −$691
sports 18% +$499
crypto 10% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +7.9% -2.4% 50% 50% -15.6%
≤30d 9 +19.2% +7.8% 56% 56% -15.6%
≤90d 9 +19.2% +7.8% 56% 56% -15.6%
all 9 +19.2% +7.8% 56% 56% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.8% 56% -15.6%
10% -2.5% 56% -23.7%
15% -11.9% 56% -31.0%
20% -20.6% 44% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$199 vs −$296 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$808
Realized−$238
Unrealized+$91
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage20d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 75¢ 86¢ $633 $725 +$92 (+15%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $74 $74 +$0 (+0%)
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 10¢ 8¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-18%)
o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch? No 55¢ 58¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $680 +$322 +47%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $355 −$355 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $691 −$691 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $115 +$83 +72%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $487 +$568 +117%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 +$22 +146%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $365 −$68 -19%
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $1 +$1 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $37 5m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $146 7m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $40 8m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 83¢ $248 33m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $52 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $52 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $46 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $90 1h
o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY No 55¢ $3 4h
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 10¢ $7 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 21¢ $21 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $57 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 56¢ $56 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $47 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $48 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $54 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $168 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $168 32h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 33¢ $38 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $49 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $807.57 · official $807.57 (match) · 79 history records