Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:13:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

27
0x27bf…319b
crypto · 63 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$24 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$25 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses29 / 31
Open positions3
Markets (closed)60 / 63
History coverage2d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day166.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 3 History 60 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? No 73¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Solana Up or Down on June 12? Up 81¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? No 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $91 +$14 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $61 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $62 +$23 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $65 +$17 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$1 +2%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$26 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $74 −$50 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $63 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $63 −$9 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $33 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $43 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$18 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $33 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $34 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$9 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $43 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $32 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$7 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$14 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$5 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $17 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $17 −$7 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$19
politics 0% −$5
other 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $105 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $91 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $57 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $7 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -12.0% -20.3% 48% 35% -11.1%
≤30d 60 -12.0% -20.3% 48% 35% -11.1%
≤90d 60 -12.0% -20.3% 48% 35% -11.1%
all 60 -12.0% -20.3% 48% 35% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover166.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 35% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 25% -19.7%
15% -34.9% 15% -27.4%
20% -41.3% 8% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.53 · official $3.53 (match) · 314 history records