Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:56:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27c1…2120 world 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate56%14W / 11L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$12
other 19% −$1
sports 2% +$4
crypto 2% $0
politics 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.4% -9.9% 17% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 12 +6.8% -3.4% 42% 17% -7.0%
≤90d 12 +6.8% -3.4% 42% 17% -7.0%
all 25 +0.7% -8.9% 56% 12% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 12% -7.2%
10% -17.6% 12% -16.1%
15% -25.6% 8% -24.2%
20% -32.9% 4% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.51 per $1 lost it wins $4.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses14 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage484d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $55 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $55 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $55 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $33 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $52 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $56 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $21 +$1 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $38 +$11 +30%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $2 $0 -10%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Jun 26 $9 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 28 $11 $0 -4%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? Mar 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $13 $0 +3%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 22 $13 $0 +0%
Holy Cross vs. Colgate Mar 20 $9 +$4 +37%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? Feb 26 $10 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $55 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $55 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $11 10h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $19 10h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $19 10h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $6 10h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $55 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $55 15h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 84¢ $55 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $13 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $33 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $16 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $10 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $22 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $33 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $56 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $7 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $49 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $5 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $46 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $52 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $23 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $34 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $56 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $14 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.43 · official $0.00 · 66 history records