Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:35:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
27 0x27c7…07f9 crypto 1389 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$97 (-1%) realized −$137 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate87%1237W / 178L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$78
14 days−$15
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$68
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 462 -7.0% -15.8% 85% 14% -11.2%
≤30d 750 -3.9% -13.0% 88% 15% -9.7%
≤90d 1056 -3.2% -12.5% 87% 15% -10.1%
all 1415 -3.0% -12.2% 87% 14% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 14% -10.3%
10% -20.6% 5% -18.9%
15% -28.3% 2% -26.7%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1237 / 178
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1415 / 1389
History coverage98d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1415 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2AM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 8PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 8AM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 8PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 8AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 11AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $4 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $4 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records