Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27c9…ee41 other 160 markets active 6h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$134 (+6%) realized +$135 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate22%34W / 121L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$9
14 days−$106
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$162
other 45% −$65
world 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -45.1% -50.4% 21% 21% -11.1%
≤30d 155 -21.0% -28.5% 22% 21% -6.0%
≤90d 155 -21.0% -28.5% 22% 21% -6.0%
all 155 -21.0% -28.5% 22% 21% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.5% 21% -6.0%
10% -35.3% 21% -15.0%
15% -41.6% 20% -23.2%
20% -47.3% 19% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$7 · ×3.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$135
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses34 / 121
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)155 / 160
History coverage21d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $22 +$18 +79%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $33 −$23 -69%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $48 +$63 +131%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -82%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$5 -84%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +234%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $18 −$16 -85%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $4 +$7 +180%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $66 +$101 +153%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -84%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $86 −$86 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 $0 -16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$15 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$2 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -14%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $2 +$7 +324%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 5h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-2 BUY 28¢ $10 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Swe BUY 14¢ $15 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 55¢ $22 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 6h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score AND Will Türkiye win on 2026 BUY 23¢ $15 11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 25h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $20 35h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 35h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 45h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 45h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 46h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 46h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 46h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.75 · official $78.75 · 421 history records