Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:46:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27ca…e628 sports 219 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$141 (-1%) realized −$140 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%98W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$270est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$172
7 days−$562
14 days−$766
30 days−$1,064
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$1,172
other 7% +$417
politics 1% +$138
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -56.5% -60.7% 21% 21% -69.5%
≤30d 58 -4.0% -13.2% 38% 36% -28.7%
≤90d 204 -4.2% -13.3% 42% 40% -20.8%
all 218 +5.0% -5.0% 45% 42% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 42% -12.1%
10% -14.1% 40% -20.5%
15% -22.4% 39% -28.2%
20% -30.0% 36% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$70 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized−$140
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses98 / 120
Est. fees paid−$270
Open positions1
Markets (closed)218 / 219
History coverage106d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $146 $146 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $134 −$134 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $24 +$29 +122%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 19 $127 −$15 -12%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $239 −$235 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $71 −$69 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Team to Take First Corner Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 18 $92 +$45 +49%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 18 $42 +$52 +123%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$14 -46%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 16 $16 −$15 -93%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 13 $189 −$189 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $77 +$123 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $142 −$142 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 10 $186 −$183 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $217 −$33 -15%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 10 $32 $0 -1%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins Jun 10 $27 −$27 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $57 −$57 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $9 +$91 +1010%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $10 +$32 +324%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 09 $34 −$34 -100%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $35 +$65 +186%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $66 +$91 +138%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants Jun 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $113 +$124 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 03 $104 −$103 -100%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $256 +$145 +57%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $82 −$81 -98%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kia Tigers Jun 03 $33 +$49 +146%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election by between 10% Jun 03 $14 −$13 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $50 +$38 +76%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $60 −$59 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $231 −$168 -72%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Hanwha Eagles May 30 $70 −$69 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 May 30 $118 +$90 +76%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5 May 30 $50 +$50 +100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 May 30 $102 +$66 +64%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Samsung Lions May 29 $15 −$15 -99%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears May 28 $216 −$216 -100%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 1.5 May 24 $100 −$99 -98%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 3.5 May 24 $114 −$110 -96%
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 2.5 May 24 $80 +$22 +27%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Lotte Giants May 24 $84 +$84 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $56 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $56 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $134 34h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $52 38h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 38h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 100¢ $53 38h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 45¢ $7 42h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 45¢ $17 43h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes SELL Kiwoom Heroes 17¢ $2 45h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 17¢ $17 45h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes SELL Lotte Giants 69¢ $174 46h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Lotte Giants 43¢ $20 2d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Lotte Giants 43¢ $22 2d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Lotte Giants 43¢ $34 2d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Lotte Giants 43¢ $17 2d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Lotte Giants 43¢ $17 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $239 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $71 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Team to Take First Corner SELL South Africa $0 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Team to Take First Corner BUY South Africa 40¢ $8 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $31 2d
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 67¢ $23 2d
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 67¢ $36 2d
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 67¢ $34 2d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears SELL Doosan Bears 100¢ $93 2d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 44¢ $42 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.72 · official $145.72 (match) · 862 history records