Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:19:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
27 0x27ca…4b32 sports 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$108 (+16%) realized +$42 · open +$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%70W / 81L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$44
14 days+$44
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$162
crypto 9% −$20
politics 8% −$13
other 6% +$27
world 3% −$7
economics 1% −$5
finance 1% −$5
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.5% -7.2% 67% 67% +26.8%
≤30d 3 +2.5% -7.2% 67% 67% +26.8%
≤90d 35 -20.6% -28.2% 46% 34% +7.5%
all 151 -16.1% -24.1% 46% 38% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 38% +3.7%
10% -31.4% 33% -6.3%
15% -38.0% 30% -15.3%
20% -44.1% 24% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses70 / 81
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions19
Markets (closed)151 / 170
History coverage234d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 60¢ 100¢ $80 $133 +$53 (+67%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Team Falcons 71¢ 100¢ $53 $75 +$22 (+41%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? No 36¢ 35¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 77¢ 96¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-14%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 36¢ 52¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+43%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 33¢ 14¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-59%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 93¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 91¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine governor race in 2026? Yes 94¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 30¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-55%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-94%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 +$2 +60%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $11 −$6 -56%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $100 +$48 +48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports (BO5) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Apr 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 24 $5 −$2 -48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Legacy (BO3) - BetBoom RUSH B! Summit Playoffs Apr 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 24 $5 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 24 $5 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 24 $4 +$6 +140%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 24 $6 +$14 +226%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $5 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $5 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $6 +$1 +20%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 11 $1 +$1 +113%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 11 $2 +$1 +44%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $5 $0 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Apr 02 $1 $0 +5%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $1 $0 +20%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 02 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March? Apr 02 $3 +$3 +100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterda Mar 28 $5 +$8 +163%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou Mar 23 $5 +$2 +46%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 22 $6 +$3 +44%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 22 $11 +$3 +27%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou Mar 22 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotte Mar 21 $6 +$13 +212%
LoL: JD Gaming vs LOUD (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 20 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 19 $25 +$6 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 32m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $53 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $81 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 37h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 37h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 37h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $6 46h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 93¢ $1 46h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 46h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 46h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $3 46h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 53¢ $8 46h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $5 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $149 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $29 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 73¢ $72 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BUY Vitality 24¢ $5 36d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B BUY FURIA 75¢ $2 52d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A BUY G2 22¢ $1 52d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 57d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 36¢ $2 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 57d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Legacy (BO3) - BetBoom RUSH B! Summit Playoffs BUY 9z 41¢ $1 57d
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? BUY No 36¢ $5 57d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $4 67d
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY Spirit 82¢ $5 67d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY G2 95¢ $5 67d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY Aurora Gaming 40¢ $4 67d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY FURIA 30¢ $6 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.98 · official $246.98 (match) · 473 history records