Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:44:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
27 0x27cc…3b96 crypto 187 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+2%) realized +$72 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%44W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$33
14 days+$30
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$166
crypto 23% +$121
other 19% −$4
politics 7% +$91
sports 6% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.1% -11.4% 50% 38% +8.6%
≤30d 21 -42.3% -47.8% 24% 19% -25.3%
≤90d 107 +16.0% +4.9% 26% 24% +4.9%
all 174 +6.0% -4.1% 25% 24% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 24% -10.9%
10% -13.3% 22% -19.4%
15% -21.7% 21% -27.2%
20% -29.3% 21% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$5 · ×3.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$72
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses44 / 130
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)174 / 187
History coverage143d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 25¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Vinícius Jr. win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $32 $28 −$4 (-14%)
Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-16%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-52%)
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-73%)
World Cup: Fastest Goal in a Final Record Broken? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$72 +71%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $13 $0 +2%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $7 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $25 +$24 +96%
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s US Open? May 31 $5 $0 -2%
Will Iga Swiatek win the 2026 Women’s US Open? May 31 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Belinda Bencic win the 2026 Women’s US Open? May 31 $5 −$3 -64%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 30 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 30 $7 −$7 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 28 $71 −$69 -98%
Will Alex de Minaur win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 28 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 28 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? May 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $3 +$66 +2206%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 18-24? May 23 $4 +$4 +100%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 +$104 +9943%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 08 $4 +$19 +491%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 07 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 07 $3 −$2 -66%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 07 $3 −$1 -32%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $20 −$17 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 26¢ $51 1h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06- BUY 25¢ $20 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will Croatia vs. Ghana end BUY 8¢ $25 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-0 BUY 7¢ $25 1h
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corne BUY 11¢ $10 12h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in BUY 14¢ $25 12h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $174 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 4d
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 5d
World Cup: Fastest Goal in a Final Record Broken? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 6d
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 6d
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 6d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 6d
Will Vinícius Jr. win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $33 6d
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $2 7d
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s US Open? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 26d
Will Iga Swiatek win the 2026 Women’s US Open? SELL No 83¢ $30 26d
Will Iga Swiatek win the 2026 Women’s US Open? BUY No 84¢ $31 26d
Will Belinda Bencic win the 2026 Women’s US Open? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 26d
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? BUY No 5¢ $2 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.26 · official $170.47 · 364 history records