Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
27 0x27d0…7943 weather 832 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,077 (-3%) realized −$9,074 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate94%772W / 49L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$393per market
Trades / day39.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,778now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 65d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$1,882
weather 40% −$108
finance 4% +$14
other 2% +$52
world 0% −$2
sports 0% +$7
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -3.5% -12.7% 94% 1% -10.6%
≤30d 343 -1.3% -10.7% 96% 1% -9.7%
≤90d 821 -1.7% -11.1% 94% 1% -10.1%
all 821 -1.7% -11.1% 94% 1% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 1% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 1% -18.7%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$64 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$1,778
Realized−$9,074
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses772 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)821 / 832
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$393
Trades / day39.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 821 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $500 $500 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $479 $480 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? No 100¢ 98¢ $200 $197 −$2 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 65°F or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $159 $159 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $140 $140 −$0 (-0%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 18? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $78 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $500 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $413 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 17 $184 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $291 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $236 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 17 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on June Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $469 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $165 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $210 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $300 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $158 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $497 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $57 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $190 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 17? Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $69 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? Jun 16 $198 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $396 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $390 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $327 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $340 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? Jun 16 $308 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $285 $0 +0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $158 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 16? Jun 15 $261 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 16? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $229 +$2 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $499 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $162 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $527 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $519 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $597 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 15 $149 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $160 2m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $100 3m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $140 4m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $500 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $78 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $479 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $468 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $12 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $17 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $173 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $9 6h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on June SELL No 100¢ $95 10h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on June SELL No 100¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $40 16h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $400 16h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $5 16h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $100 16h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 100¢ $170 16h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $300 17h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 100¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 100¢ $4 17h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $51 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,778.27 · official $1,778.27 (match) · 3500 history records