Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:54:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

27
0x27d2…8ee8
sports · 490 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$146 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$164 · open +$19
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$119
Realized−$164
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses236 / 238
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions16
Markets (closed)474 / 490
History coverage97d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 16 History 474 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$6
14 days+$30
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 70¢ 99¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+42%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 96¢ 94¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 18¢ 100¢ $4 $20 +$16 (+455%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 51¢ 44¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 28¢ 50¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+77%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? No 80¢ 58¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-27%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 40¢ 14¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-66%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 79¢ 77¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 52¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No 11¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 27? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 27? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 28? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Main Card) Deiveson Figueiredo 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 26? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 18? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 28? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 13 $5 +$4 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $11 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 +$8 +165%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 06 $19 +$6 +33%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $9 −$9 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $88 +$32 +36%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 +$5 +100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $15 −$7 -46%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 29 $6 −$5 -90%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 29 $32 −$32 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $32 +$8 +25%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $126 −$19 -15%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy bo May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 22 $2 −$2 -91%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $195 +$5 +2%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? May 22 $3 +$15 +540%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 20 $33 +$3 +8%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $5 +$5 +100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 20 $8 +$2 +18%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 18 $3 −$1 -48%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 17 $2 +$3 +129%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 900 council seat elections in May 16 $4 $0 +12%
Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 20 May 16 $17 +$3 +17%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $3 +$2 +57%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 11 $9 +$106 +1189%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $8 +$2 +25%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $4 +$16 +388%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) May 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 10 $30 +$10 +35%
76ers vs. Knicks May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 05 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $7 +$2 +31%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? May 04 $14 +$11 +75%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 03 $3 −$3 -100%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 2? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 38% +$92
sports 33% −$63
weather 10% −$63
finance 8% −$94
other 7% −$25
politics 3% $0
crypto 1% −$7
economics 1% $0
tech 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $5 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $5 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $5 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $3 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $4 9h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $5 3d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 10¢ $2 6d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 19¢ $2 6d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 20¢ $6 6d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 19¢ $2 7d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 24¢ $3 7d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 8d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 8d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $5 9d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Aryna Sabalenka 90¢ $9 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 75¢ $19 13d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? BUY Down 42¢ $1 13d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Deiveson Figueiredo 18¢ $2 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $78 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -8.7% -17.4% 50% 50% -45.8%
≤30d 33 -11.2% -19.6% 45% 36% -11.5%
≤90d 445 -11.1% -19.6% 48% 40% -15.2%
all 474 -4.9% -14.0% 50% 43% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 43% -13.7%
10% -22.2% 36% -22.0%
15% -29.7% 29% -29.5%
20% -36.6% 24% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.79 · official $118.79 (match) · 1168 history records