Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:08:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
27 0x27d4…716e sports 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$404 (-4%) realized −$403 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%38W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$702now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$372
7 days−$135
14 days+$452
30 days+$452
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$140
other 29% +$301
politics 10% −$967
world 8% +$177
finance 4% +$179
crypto 2% +$98
tech 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -2.4% -11.7% 56% 56% -12.5%
≤30d 66 -0.1% -9.6% 56% 56% -3.7%
≤90d 66 -0.1% -9.6% 56% 56% -3.7%
all 68 -1.3% -10.7% 56% 56% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 56% -13.0%
10% -19.2% 56% -21.4%
15% -27.0% 51% -29.0%
20% -34.2% 44% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$116 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$702
Realized−$403
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses38 / 30
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions5
Markets (closed)68 / 75
History coverage110d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 46¢ 46¢ $197 $196 −$2 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? No 65¢ 64¢ $104 $103 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $102 $102 −$0 (-0%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 56¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 25 $10 +$12 +114%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $99 +$61 +61%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $103 +$97 +93%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $107 +$43 +40%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $104 −$104 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $103 −$102 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $102 −$101 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $103 −$102 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $100 −$99 -99%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $99 +$61 +61%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $102 +$71 +70%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $100 +$93 +92%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $101 −$101 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $115 +$139 +122%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $99 +$51 +52%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $99 −$99 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 22 $101 −$100 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $100 +$67 +67%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $100 +$76 +75%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $28 +$21 +75%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $98 +$62 +64%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $304 +$146 +48%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $99 −$24 -24%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $100 +$67 +67%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $101 +$60 +60%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $100 +$73 +72%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $101 +$84 +83%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $99 +$61 +61%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $100 +$32 +32%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $52 +$48 +92%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $192 +$108 +56%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $100 +$150 +150%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$144 +144%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $99 +$121 +122%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$59 +59%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $50 +$93 +186%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $104 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $101 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 65¢ $105 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $22 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 44¢ $44 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 44¢ $17 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 44¢ $40 11h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 68¢ $27 12h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 68¢ $41 13h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 68¢ $2 13h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 68¢ $21 13h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 68¢ $11 13h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $41 17h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $5 18h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $8 19h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $3 19h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $5 21h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $23 22h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $6 22h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $14 24h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $99 25h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $64 26h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $32 26h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $3 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $103 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $103 26h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $102 26h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $103 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $107 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $701.96 · official $701.98 (match) · 217 history records