Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:54:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
27 0x27d5…e398 crypto 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+2%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +4.3% -5.7% 100% 0% -6.0%
≤30d 3 +4.3% -5.7% 100% 0% -6.0%
≤90d 3 +4.3% -5.7% 100% 0% -6.0%
all 3 +4.3% -5.7% 100% 0% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 0% -6.0%
10% -14.7% 0% -15.0%
15% -22.9% 0% -23.2%
20% -30.5% 0% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage2d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? Yes 93¢ 93¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 24 $101 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $46 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 23? Jun 23 $44 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.92 · official $51.92 (match) · 10 history records