Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:46:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
27 0x27d7…12c7 crypto 851 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$278 (+5%) realized +$278 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate75%637W / 214L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$147
7 days+$351
14 days+$307
30 days+$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$245
weather 13% −$15
sports 12% +$3
other 6% +$8
finance 1% +$7
politics 0% +$1
world 0% −$3
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 213 +11.0% +0.4% 85% 85% +1.7%
≤30d 571 -0.7% -10.2% 70% 67% -4.0%
≤90d 851 -1.3% -10.7% 75% 65% -5.5%
all 851 -1.3% -10.7% 75% 65% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 65% -5.5%
10% -19.3% 34% -14.6%
15% -27.1% 21% -22.8%
20% -34.2% 12% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$278
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses637 / 214
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)851 / 851
History coverage52d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 851 Trades
no open positions (204 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 27 $32 +$20 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$8 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$6 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$5 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $28 +$4 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $4 +$1 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $28 +$9 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 27 $4 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 27 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 27 $28 +$12 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $6 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $27 +$5 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $28 +$10 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $27 −$27 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 27 $28 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 26 $28 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $28 +$5 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$2 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 26 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $28 −$27 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $28 +$4 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $41 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 26 $28 +$3 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 26 $24 +$8 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $33 +$14 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 26 $28 +$9 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$2 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 26 $40 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 26 $28 +$10 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 26 $28 +$7 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$4 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $40 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $41 +$19 +48%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $28 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $40 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$4 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$12 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$16 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$4 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $32 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $31 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $30 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $20 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $28 14h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $28 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $28 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $6 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $27 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $28 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $27 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $28 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $28 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $28 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $9 29h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $7 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $28 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $41 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $28 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $28 34h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1575 history records